Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
